UPA, led by Congress Party, will make major gains in Left-ruled West Bengal and Kerala as well as in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra to emerge as the leading alliance with around 215 seats - 40 more than the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), states an NDTV exit poll.
The NDTV poll survey, on a sample size of 71,500 respondents across India, says the Congress will cross the 160 mark, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will get around 130. The Left-led Third Front will cross the 100 mark. However, the communists will suffer a setback in Kerala and West Bengal, - dropping below 35 seats from the 60 in the 14th Lok Sabha, the poll done in the GfK. In its bastion of West Bengal, the communists will lose 13 seats to the Congress and its ally, the Trinamool Congress, while in Kerala, the Left will lose seven seats and the UPA will gain nine seats.
In Uttar Pradesh, the UPA will gain four seats, but the Fourth Front (Samajwadi Party) will lose 12 seats. The UPA will gain in BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh (seven seats) as well as in NDA-ruled Punjab (eight seats). The NDA will lose in most states, or maintain status quo, except in Bihar where it will do remarkably well - gaining 22 seats. In contrast, the Fourth Front (Rashtriya Janata Dal and others) will lose 21 seats in the state.
In Tamil Nadu, the UPA will lose six seats, while the Third Front (AIADMK) will gain five seats.
In Maharashtra, the NDA will lose six seats, while the UPA will gain seven. In Rajasthan, NDA will lose nine while the UPA will gain eight, the survey says.